The Biden vs. Trump Rematch: Why Polls Show a Potential Shift, and What It Means for 2024
It’s a question that’s buzzing across the political landscape: why is President Biden facing an uphill battle in the 2024 polls against his predecessor, Donald Trump? Recent surveys show a narrowing gap, with some even putting Trump slightly ahead.
Poll shows Biden losing to Trump as Black, Latino, youth support drops
A new poll shows President Joe Biden losing to former president Donald Trump in 2024 as Mr Biden’s support among Black, Latino and young voters has dropped.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll showed that the president has failed to consolidate parts of the coalition that propelled him to the White House in 2020.
Mr Trump, who has a commanding lead in every state that holds an early nominating contest for the Republican nomination for president, beats Mr Biden in a head-to-head with 39 per cent compared to Mr Biden’s 37 per cent.
Only 63 per cent of Black voters support Mr Biden. In 2020, Black voters propelled him to victory in the South Carolina primary, which led to him winning the Democratic nomination.
In his victory speech in November, he thanked Black voters, saying “You’ve always had my back, and I’ll have yours.”
The Independent’s Eric Garcia reports:
Let’s delve into the potential reasons behind this trend and explore what the 2024 election might hold.
1. The Economy Bites: Inflation and economic anxieties are at the forefront of voters’ minds. Despite steady job growth, rising prices of everyday goods are pinching pockets, and Biden’s approval ratings on handling the economy have plummeted. Trump, who often touts his pre-pandemic economic record, is capitalizing on this discontent.
2. Age and Stamina Concerns: Biden, at 82, would be the oldest president ever elected to a second term. Concerns about his stamina and mental fitness have been amplified by recent gaffes and perceived moments of cognitive decline. Trump, though no spring chicken himself at 76, projects a more energetic image, which resonates with some voters.
3. The Independent Vote: Independent voters, a crucial swing bloc, are currently leaning towards Trump. They seem disillusioned with both major parties and may perceive Trump as a disruptive force capable of shaking up the establishment.
4. The “Trump Effect” Endures: Trump’s base remains fiercely loyal, and his ability to energize his supporters through rallies and social media remains potent. His populist rhetoric and grievances-driven messaging continue to resonate with a significant portion of the electorate.
5. The Democratic Dilemma: Democrats face a challenge in motivating their own base. Some younger voters who backed Biden in 2020 feel less enthusiastic this time around. Additionally, the party’s internal divisions on key issues like healthcare and climate change could discourage turnout.
Trump gets more than 60% in national GOP polling average
Former President Donald Trump gets more than 60 per cent in FiveThirtyEight’s national GOP primary polling average as of 29 December. In January of 2023, Mr Trump was standing at about 42 per cent support.
Polling average as of 29 December:
- Donald Trump: 61.2%
- Nikki Haley: 11.0%
- Ron DeSantis: 11.7%
- Vivek Ramaswamy: 3.5%
- Chris Christie: 3.4%
- Asa Hutchinson: 0.6%
